It is true that India takes time to warm up in foriegn conditions and I think that India will have a uneven form at the start of the tornament. However, I do not have any doubt in my mind that we are going to peak at the right time. We will gather momemtum as the WC progresses.
BTW…I am very, very unsure of Australia for the first time in my life. Mark my words….I think Australia is the 5th best team at the moment and my bet would be on S.A, India, W.I and Sri Lanka in that particular order….
You should keep in mind that one day cricket is all about “that one day”…the form, the luck, the toss, the conditions, the pitch, the spectators, the umpire decisions – all these play a significant role in outcome of matches. I have already put my money (in reality) on S.A and India..Lets hope I make some money.
Here are the popular odds for winning the World cup 2007
[href=http://armoks.com/2007/02/23/the-odds-of-cricket-world-cup]

South Africa loose to Australia.
South Africa, Scotland match washed out.
Australia, Scotland match washed out too.

Australia beat Netherlands and end up with 5 points.
Scotland beat Netherlands and end up with 4 points.
South Africa beat Netherlands and end up with 3 points

So, the top ranking team, South Africa is eliminated . Won’t be the first time the rain gods have eliminated them from the World Cup.

I can come up with more convoluted scenarios, but I wonder if a farce like this could actually happen…

1. Top Guns of India have to click big time. They have the talent and they can click. I am not thinking for a quick 40 runs here and there. Almost Ponting like innings – almost a century whenever he steps in to bat.

2. Indian bowling is weak to fill in the 5th bowler spot. Even among the other 4 bowlers, one guy will have a bad day for sure. So, you have to back fill 15 – 16 overs.

3. Indian fielding ….

Please do not underestimate Srilanka in a neutral venue. That guy Kumara Sangakarra is something. I am impressed especially after his century against NZ in NZ, against Shane Bond.

England – Flintoff & Co, is a talented side. They beat the Aussies. If Simon Jones plays, England will be a strong team.

I think the same reasons will apply to most teams in the cup and India are better placed than some of the others to make it to the top 4.

Match-conditions: Start-stop affects all teams. Not just India. Apart from Australia, who are an all-weather-all-conditions (awac) team, I can’t say any of the other teams as awac. So there goes that reason.

Leadership: Dravid is, indeed, India’s most successful ODI captain. So there goes that! This would make Chappell the most successful ODI coach! But that’s another story. Check out: http://cricket.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1653872.cms

[8] I read your piece and said, “Wow! Options! What I’d give to have that many options in a team. It gives the team flexibility. The point is that one has to turn an apparent disadvantage into an advantage. Chappell has the guts to do it. Whether Dravid has or not… time will tell.

Grafters: A year ago, Dravid’s problem was that he was too much of a “grafter”. Not anymore? In his current role, Tendulkar is a “grafter”. That’s enough, imvho.

– Mohan

match conditions – different islands – different wickets+ possible rains = start stop nature of the game. India not too flash when this happens.

Leadership – Rahuls captaincy is suspect ( in the ODI arena at least)

11 wont benefit India – Look at all the matches won since the Pakistan tour. Look at the nature of the wickets.. whenever India have been presented with anything other than a flat “plonk your front foot forward and swing thru the line” type of wickets – the team is out of its depth. the bowlers have saved the day more often than not, but the batting implodes every single time.

8- If both Pathan and Sehwag have to accommodated, then there is the issue of balance. If Uthappa plays on form, then where does Sehwag fit in? Does Dravid play at 3 or 5? If Sehwag comes in at 6, we are way too bottom heavy.
And if the wickets are low and slow, then the ball wont come onto the bat. Which wont help the stroke makers.
Plus all games are day games. batting second will become progressively harder as the tourney progresses.
too many stroke makers or a a few more grafter? 4 bowlers or 5?
it will be interesting to see the team composition and also to find out how many of the XV are passengers